McAfee, Inc. released its top ten predictions for security threats in 2008. Researchers at McAfee Avert Labs expect an increase in Web dangers and threats targeting Microsoft Corp.'s Windows Vista operating system, among other new or increased threats. At the same time ad-serving software known as adware is expected to continue to decrease. Compromises and malware at Salesforce.com, Monster.com and MySpace, among others, represent a new trend in attacking online applications and social networking sites.

    "Threats are increasingly moving to the Web and migrating to newer technologies such as VoIP and instant messaging," said Jeff Green, senior vice president of McAfee Avert Labs and product development. "Professional and organized criminals continue to drive a lot of the malicious activity. As they become increasingly sophisticated, it is more important than ever to be aware and secure when traversing the Web."

    Attackers are using Web 2.0 sites as a way to distribute malware and are data mining the Web, looking for information people share to give their attacks more authenticity. McAfee Avert Labs expects a large increase in this activity in 2008. The combination of lawsuits, better defenses, and the negative connotation associated with this form of advertising helped start the decline of adware in 2006. This trend was confirmed in 2007 and with the major players out of the game, adware is expected to continue its decline in 2008.

    McAfee Avert Labs expects others will ride the coattails of that questionable success, pushing up the number of PCs turned into bots. Bots are computer programs that give cyber crooks full control over PCs. Bot programs typically get installed surreptitiously on the PCs of unknowing computer users. With a handful of high-profile prosecutions of bot herders in 2007, criminals will be seeking better ways to cover their tracks. The Storm Worm set a worrying precedent.

    The scenario of a "flash" worm via instant messaging applications has been foreshadowed for years. This threat could reach millions of users around the globe in a matter of seconds. There has been malware that spreads via IM, but we have yet to see such a self-executing threat. However, this may be closer than ever as the number of vulnerabilities in popular instant messaging applications more than doubled in 2007 compared to 2006. More importantly, there were 10 high-severity risks in 2007, compared to none in 2006. Additionally, the top IM virus families of 2005 and 2006 were replaced with new active threats, signifying an out with the old and in with the new milestone. Skype saw its first batch of worms in 2007. Many more are expected to follow.

    Also known as Nuwar, the Storm Worm has been the most versatile malware on record. The creators released thousands of variants and changed coding techniques, infection methods and social engineering schemes far more than any other threat in history. Storm created the largest peer-to-peer botnet ever. The threat to virtual economies is outpacing the growth of the threat to the real economy. As virtual objects continue to gain real value, more attackers will look to capitalize on this. The evidence is already there. The number of password-stealing Trojans that targeted online games in 2007 grew faster than the number of Trojans that target banks.

    As Vista becomes more prevalent, attackers and malware authors will start in earnest to explore ways to circumvent the operating system's defenses. In 2008, Windows Vista is set to gain additional market share and cross the 10 percent barrier. The release of Service Pack 1 for Vista is also likely to accelerate the adoption of the Microsoft operating system. There were 19 Vista vulnerabilities reported since its release earlier this year. We can expect a lot more Vista vulnerabilities to be reported in 2008.